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By WILIAM HUNTER, SENIOR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY REPORTER
Published: 12:57 BST, 16 June 2026 | Updated: 12:57 BST, 16 June 2026
As the England squad get ready for their first game of the FIFA World Cup tomorrow night, supporters are braced for the tournament's usual emotional rollercoaster.
However, before the first whistle has even blown, scientists have predicted the most likely outcome for the Three Lions.
Researchers from the University of Liverpool used a world–class supercomputer to run 1,000 simulations, charting each team's likely journey through the competition.
And it looks like we might be headed for a repeat of Euro 2024 all over again.
Just as in that ill–fated tournament, England is most likely to battle all the way to the final, before losing out in a close–fought match against Spain.
The England squad has a strong 29.2 per cent chance of making it to the final, compared to just 24 per cent for the formidable French team.
However, the simulations show that football only has a 17 per cent chance of coming home this year with an England win.
Lead author Dr Benjamin Holmes told the Daily Mail: 'In the majority of simulations, we reach the quarters at least. But we are second favourites to win it behind Spain.'
Scientists have used a supercomputer to simulate England's most likely journey through the World Cup, likely resulting in a loss to Spain in the final
Scientists predict that the England squad (pictured) has a 29 per cent chance of making it to the final, but only a 17 per cent chance of winning the tournament overall
To predict match results, the supercomputer uses the latest machine learning technologies.
It not only takes into account the quality of the individual players but also how they are likely to interact with each other on the pitch.
And it already has an impressive track record, having correctly predicted England's second place in Euro 2024.
Dr Holmes said: 'Since Euro 2024, we have expanded our simulation model with a host of new features.
'The core idea remains the same: estimating the abilities of players and how they interact with each other and their opponents.
'We have now added simulations of injuries, suspensions and who scores the goals.
'We even model the playing conditions, capturing the weather and altitude that matter so much in this year's expansive tournament across three host countries.'
Overall, England has a 17 per cent chance of winning the entire tournament, a 29 per cent chance of reaching the final, a 49 per cent chance of reaching the semi–final, and a solid 64 per cent chance of making it at least to the quarter–finals.
England looks poised to dominate the group stages, with a 100 per cent chance of making it through to the knockout rounds
England's chances at the World Cup
Chances of making it to the round of 32: 100%
Chances of making it to the round of 16: 84%
Chances of making it to the quarter–finals: 64%
Chances of making it to the semi–finals: 46%
Chances of making it to the Final: 29%
Overall chances of winning the World Cup: 17%
Dr Holmes admits that the most likely outcome based on these simulations can be 'a little tricky to interpret' but that a glimpse of the likely final result is possible.
He says: 'A simpler interpretation is the most likely final is Spain v England – 9 per cent of simulations – but we only win that 47 per cent of the time.'
According to these results, England is set to smash through the group stages with little resistance.
According to the researchers, England has a 100 per cent chance of qualifying for the knockout stage and an 85 per cent chance of winning the group overall.
This should be one of the most dominant group performances in the competition, with England expected to come out with an eight–point goal difference.
Coming into the Round of 32, the squad's first test is likely to be the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Scientists predict that there is a 26 per cent chance of coming up against the DRC, against which England has a 95 per cent expected win rate.
Storming through into the Round of 16, England is most likely to meet Mexico, who are likely to be on a good run, having come out on top of Group A.
In nine per cent of simulations, England meets Spain in the final. However, England only beats Spain in this scenario 47 per cent of the time
England's most likely matchups
Round of 32: DR Congo (95% win rate)
Round of 16: Mexico (80% win rate)
Quarter–Final: Brazil (72% win rate)
Semi–Final: Portugal (61% win rate)
Final: Spain (47% win rate)
However, this shouldn't prove too much trouble, with the researchers predicting an 80 per cent win rate against the Mexican squad.
Making their way into the quarter–finals, England look likely to batter Brazil, against whom they have a predicted 72 per cent win rate.
Despite being the clear favourites in Group C, Brazil are unlikely to come anywhere near winning the tournament overall.
The researchers predict that the unsteady Brazilian squad only have a three per cent chance of taking home the World Cup.
The first major challenge will come in the semi–finals, where England has a 34 per cent chance of coming up against Portugal.
The Portuguese side is looking strong, with a solid lineup featuring Diogo Costa, Rúben Dias, Martim Fernandes, Jota Silva and Cristiano Ronaldo.
The supercomputer simulations put Portugal in the top–five contenders for the overall title, with a 10.6 per cent chance of bringing home the cup.
While England still looks the favourite to enter the final, things will be a lot closer – with just a 61 per cent predicted win rate.
Researchers say that the squad selected by England manager Thomas Tuchel (pictured) performs well even when accounting for injuries
This would bring the squad to the most likely final matchup overall: England vs Spain.
'Whilst we have Spain as favourites, a final between us is almost a coin–flip,' says Dr Holmes.
Unfortunately, Spain is still tipped to take home the cup with a 26.1 per cent chance of winning overall.
However, that doesn't mean fans should count England out of the tournament just yet.
'Tuchel has picked a balanced squad which does well in our simulations that account for injuries and suspensions, Kane is in the form of his life, and Pickford can always be counted on in big tournaments,' says Dr Holmes.
Likewise, a final against Spain is not the only way things could go down and there is still plenty of room for upsets.
Dr Holmes says: 'Spain being eliminated would put us in a much better position.
'They are the favourites in the simulations and our most likely opponent in the final. Their draw last night against Cabo Verde definitely helps us'.
According to the results, Spain is most likely to win, with its probability of glory at 26.1 per cent
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The supercomputer found that the fourth most–likely final matchup is a head–to–head between England and France.
If France beats Spain in the semi–final, the odds look significantly better – with the researchers giving the English team a 56 per cent chance of winning.
But the best outcome for English fans would be a slightly less likely scenario in which the Netherlands battle their way through to the final instead.
Although this is an outside chance, it would make England solid favourites to take home the World Cup.
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How Gwyneth Paltrow earned her age-defying bikini body at 53 - via six-days-a-week workouts and those famously tough diets
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EXCLUSIVE'Inconsolable' Beckham camp hit back at smirking son Brooklyn's advert mocking his parents - as backlash forces him to limit comments
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Sally Field thought movie icon was 'stoned' on set: 'I never understood a word he said'
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Producer claims Off Campus stars Josh Heuston and Mika Abdalla ARE dating - weeks after the actress called off her wedding
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BBC Radio 2 star Tina Daheley announces she is stepping down from breakfast radio after 18 years and days before Sara Cox takes over from axed Scott Mills
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Danniella Westbrook reveals the results of her latest facial reconstruction surgery after revealing she will undergo six more procedures
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'I'm going to go crazy': Brazil footballer Neymar reveals he's set to become a father for a fifth time as Bruna Biancardi announces she's pregnant
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Made In Chelsea star Sam Holmes marries girlfriend Rosie Waters in a lavish three-day wedding in Cannes attended by reality TV pals
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Gwyneth Paltrow, 53, shows off her incredible figure in a white bikini as she kicks back on a luxury yacht in Sardinia with shirtless Brad Falchuk
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Bonnie Tyler, 75, is forced to cancel all of her summer tour dates as she remains 'seriously ill' after waking up from a coma in a Portuguese hospital
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Trying to get into VB's good books? Cruz Beckham's girlfriend Jackie Apostel promotes Victoria's makeup products just hours after Brooklyn's savage post
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EXCLUSIVEMichael Jackson's ex-wife Debbie Rowe, 67, looks unrecognizable as she makes rare outing after huge success of King of Pop's biopic
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Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau look like lovestruck teenagers as they kiss during romantic picnic date
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Madonna unmasked! Queen of Pop, 67, stuns fans by revealing her natural beauty WITHOUT filters in unedited video
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'I found it incredibly rude': Vogue Williams says she is no longer speaking to ex husband Brian McFadden because he didn't invite her to his new wedding
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On track for fashion glory! Royal Ascot racegoers pull out all the stops in neon looks and statement hats as the festival gets off to a stylish start
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Taylor Swift turns heads on solo outing in NYC without fiance Travis Kelce as couple's wedding date approaches
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Ariana Grande breaks down in tears during her LA concert... following shock Ethan Slater split: 'So overwhelming'
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Corey Feldman, 54, rushed to hospital after suffering medical emergency in mid-air on LA-bound flight
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Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel put on united front on rare NYC outing... two years after pop star's DWI arrest
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Russell Crowe, 62, shows off his slimmed-down frame as he holds hands with partner Britney Theriot, 42, at the Taormina Film Festival
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Jelly Roll files from divorce from wife Bunnie XO in shock split after nearly 10 years of marriage
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Love Island's Camilla Thurlow reveals her non-verbal daughter Nora, 4, is experiencing 'seizure-type events and unexplained falls' as she shares health update
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Lauren Silverman details finding out she was pregnant with son Eric following affair with husband's friend Simon Cowell as she says: 'it was the end of my marriage'
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Smirking Brooklyn Beckham takes a swipe at his parents in pot-shot filled new video sponsored by fast-food delivery service
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Why the only way is up for North West: As nepo baby turns 13 how she's racked up a staggering net worth through music deals, reality TV and millions of followers
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Sister Act star reveals her iconic nun character was a secret lesbian
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Kate's carriage procession! Princess is whisked back to Windsor Castle with William after Order of the Garter Service - with Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor absent for the first time
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EDEN CONFIDENTIAL: Now Camilla spices up her court with Geri Halliwell
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Star Wars fans fume as Hayden Christensen ditches pricey convention to watch NBA Finals
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Worst dressed at Royal Ascot: Let's hope racegoers don't make these fashion mishaps - and even royals are guilty
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'She's not laying low': Princess Beatrice shrugs off royal rent row with glitzy St Tropez party: CHARLOTTE GRIFFITHS
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Bette Midler, 80, brutally mocked for 'humiliating' performance at anti-Trump event: 'Secondhand embarrassment is real'
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EXCLUSIVETyra Banks called out by America's Next Top Model alums over 'double standard' in defamation lawsuit against Netflix
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Hollywood bigwig Robert De Niro goes on rambling rant about how he hates 'abuser' Trump as liberal crowds cheer him on
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Jennifer Lopez admits she was forced to 'figure myself out' after her 'life blew up in my face' following Ben Affleck divorce
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DJ Fat Tony parties with Gemma Collins and Davina McCall at his book launch in London hours after revealing he was asked to speak out on Beckham family feud
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Rosie O'Donnell unleashes on 'disgraceful' UFC White House event and lets rip at 'racist, homophobic and un-American' Trump supporters
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Julia Roberts trashes Trump as she appears alongside Jane Fonda and Joy Reid at resistance event counterprogramming to president's UFC match
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Maya Jama shows ex Ruben Dias what he's missing in a dazzling silver gown as she is promoted to 'popstar' status in Blossoms new music video
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Olivia Attwood and Pete Wicks continue their PDA-packed poolside parade as they kiss passionately during romantic trip to St Tropez
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Ashley James confesses she felt 'heartbroken at her postnatal recovery' as she discusses the reality of motherhood in latest swimwear shoot for Women's Health
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Junior Andre shares gushing tribute to his family after a tequila-fuelled 21st birthday as he says 'the greatest gift is memories that last forever'
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Bonnie Tyler, 75, wakes up from coma after 'suffering cardiac arrest' but remains 'seriously ill'
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Brooke Burke, 54, shows off incredible figure in tiny bikini as she reveals her seven daily habits to 'protect goddess energy'
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Whining Amanda Seyfried complains that she had to hire bodyguard after insulting Charlie Kirk in wake of his assassination
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Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles' manager catch up at Wembley gig - five years after Aperture singer officiated his wedding wearing a bathrobe and slippers
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DJ Fat Tony wades in on Kelly Osbourne body-shaming row and reveals she was using weight-loss drugs 'for other life problems'
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Alec Baldwin, 68, reveals what he wants his eight children to have when they're older and it's not money or fame
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Ant Middleton says it 'broke his heart to see his son struggling to breathe' from the death zone at Mount Everest
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Jessica Simpson pulls off a funky outfit after admitting she was pushed to lose 15lbs at age 17 to compete with Britney Spears
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Inside Danny Miller's 'year of reinvention' as Emmerdale star shows off weight loss transformation after being fat shamed by cruel trolls
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Glen Powell packs on the PDA with Landman star Michelle Randolph as their romance continues to heat up
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EXCLUSIVESpencer Pratt retreats to Hawaii with wife Heidi Montag for her steamy music video shoot after losing LA mayors race
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West Wilson NOT returning for season 11 of Summer House after bombshell Amanda Batula scandal
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Shona McGarty and former EastEnders co-star Tony Discipline can't keep their hands off each other as they enjoy a boozy day out
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Sara Cox announces her Radio 2 Breakfast Show will launch next month with Tom Hanks booked as first guest -as she replaces axed Scott Mills
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Rosie Huntington-Whiteley sizzles in bold bikinis and striking swimwear as she launches new collection for ViX Paula Hermanny
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Jennifer Lopez, 56, shocks fans by striking 'vulgar' pose in VERY skimpy dress: 'Close your legs!'
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80s actress who starred in beloved rom-com with Nicolas Cage steps out for rare outing... can you guess who?
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'You are my rock and the love of my life': John Terry shares bikini-clad snaps of wife Toni to celebrate their 19th wedding anniversary
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Harper's fashion moment: Youngest Beckham child, 14, steals the show in VB pink satin cami and cardigan and £855 Aquazzura heels
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Lauren Sanchez shares bloopers from her time on TV as she details 'fear' and 'embarrassment': 'Critics said I didn't deserve to be there'
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Justin Bieber showers wife Hailey with kisses as they celebrate New York Knicks' NBA Finals victory
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Jane Seymour, 75, lets slip she was NAKED when her boyfriend proposed as she's set to wed for the 5th time
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Victoria Beckham receives tender kiss on the hand from pal Tom Cruise as he sits in the middle of their family at David's Walk Of Fame ceremony
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Love Island USA producer dies from unexpected medical emergency while filming in Fiji
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Zendaya and Tom Holland make their first red carpet appearance together in five years at the photocall of Spider-Man: Brand New Day in Madrid
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Molly-Mae Hague shares a breastfeeding snap as she reveals 'Spanx, a giant pad and a lot of prayers' helped her squeeze into dress just days after giving birth
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Harry Styles' sweet nod to David Hockney: Singer sports a yellow and pink stripe top and displays powerful message following the late artist's death
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Kylie Jenner fans are shocked to learn her 'Average Jane' middle name but it's actually a nod to a famous relative
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Jamie Hince, 57, steps out with Kate Moss doppelganger, 29, who looks just like his ex in hotpants and ballet flats while smoking a cigarette
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Love Island SPOILER: Aidan rages as he discovers Lorenzo and Yaz have locked lips and 'gets petty' in kissing challenge
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EXCLUSIVELook away now, Taylor Swift! Joe Alwyn gets handsy with Love Story star Sarah Pidgeon... days before his superstar ex weds Travis Kelce
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Travis Barker's ex-wife Shanna Moakler claims he took 30 pills a day when he was an addict
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New video shows moment Oliver Tree's helicopter smashes into another chopper in mid-air crash that left US singer and five others dead
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Heidi Montag declares husband Spencer Pratt an 'inspiration' as she breaks silence since he was eliminated from LA mayoral race
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Jade Thirlwall misses Little Mix bandmate Perrie Edwards' wedding in Portugal as she performs 335 miles away at Primavera Sound in Porto
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What will happen to Oliver Tree's $4m fortune? Star shared plans for his will just WEEKS before shock death
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Ewan McGregor, 55, shares a sweet kiss with wife Mary Elizabeth Winstead, 41, as they snap selfies while sightseeing in Rome
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Josh Duggar's attorney gives health update after he's transferred to medical facility housing Tiger King's Joe Exotic
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'We are all so over the moon': Sienna Miller's sister confirms actress, 44, is engaged to Oli Green, 29, as she praises his 'beautiful' proposal
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Roger Cook dead aged 83: The Cook Report presenter passes away following a short illness after surviving cancer twice
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Katie Price's husband Lee Andrews is reunited with his phone as he LIKES her latest sexy post following 'release from jail'
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Amanda Bynes flaunts her slimmer frame in wild cutout slacks amid 40lb Ozempic weight loss journey
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Tyson and Paris Fury hit by backlash from Travellers as they are criticised for 'forgetting their values' at the White House in 'Trump for Prime Minister' hat
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Sofia Richie posts rare photo of baby son three months after giving birth
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She's got the Midas touch: Molly-Mae Hague cashes in on £90 cream dress she wore to show off her post-baby figure just days after giving birth
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Chelsy Davy's new life in Mauritius: Harry's ex is living the 'dream' juggling motherhood with building her jewellery brand
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Gemma Collins, 45, unveils new look as she details her struggle with perimenopause after revealing her wish to become a mother
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DJ Fat Tony reveals he was asked to speak out on the 'really sad' Beckham feud and predicts warring relatives will 'all get back together'
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England WAGs will spend World Cup in 'child-friendly' Miami nearly 1,500 miles away from players' base - with no overnight stays allowed
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Jack Whitehall reveals he apologised to Becky Hill over 'Wetherspoons Whitney' class row gag as he reacts to being the subject of her 'diss track'
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Harper Beckham's futile attempts to reconnect with Brooklyn Beckham are heartbreaking: KATIE HIND reveals the REAL story behind snub
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Jodie Comer sizzles in high-fashion gowns as she reveals she has an 'altar at home', loves tarot cards and has enrolled in a herbalism course
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