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Hello, I am returning to yesterday’s issue that I raised, and I did not receive a clear answer as to why ERT, in order to advertise itself — having exclusively broadcast the World Cup (which achieved television ratings of 30%-90%) — had to give €623,000 to an advertising company for 15 programs on YouTube and posts on social media. Now I am moving away from ERT so that no one thinks I have anything personal against the people there, and I am taking you to the advertising company that received the “golden package.” The company is called Choose, and its owner, until 2018, used to receive some small jobs from SYRIZA. Suddenly, the guy became a government favourite from 2019 onwards. Something like Makis Seriatou in the 2000s — older readers will remember him, although the man went bankrupt. Of course, back then the state did not give work only to Seriatou; there were also five or six other advertisers, and the “daily wage” was somehow shared out. Now this particular person has become unavoidable…there is no advertising campaign or public-sector event where he is not behind it. A new establishment figure, Giannis Detsis, takes everything, and it probably pays off since the government gives it to him. Look at some figures and revenues to understand what we are talking about. In 2018, therefore, the company Choose had a turnover of €1 million and profits of €16,000. In 2019, turnover was €1.9 million and profits €81,000, and then the takeoff began. In 2021, turnover rose to €4 million, in 2022 to €10.4 million, in 2023 to €17.1 million, in 2024 it fell somewhat to €14.1 million, but in 2025 it reached a turnover of €25 million and profits of €5.56 million.
A shower of state contracts worth €255 million
Do not imagine that these turnovers are because the entire market (private companies) suddenly started advertising through Choose. According to data from KIMDIS (the Central Electronic Register of Public Contracts), Choose has received 229 contracts worth more than €255 million, from 21 August 2017 until July of this year. The latest contract was on 14 July, with the Ministry of Tourism, with a total value of €5.32 million. The largest contract was with the Ministry of Migration, amounting to €40.6 million, followed by the Ministry of Labour (in 2025), worth €28.37 million, and then another one from the Ministry of Labour worth €18.69 million. Dozens of other smaller, medium-sized, and large contracts follow, all from the state or from public organisations of all kinds. Mainly, Mr Detsis distributes state advertising, if you understand what I mean.
What it received under SYRIZA
According to the available KIMDIS data, under SYRIZA, Choose received 10 state contracts, with a total value of approximately €700,000 (compared with 229 contracts worth more than €255 million from 21 August 2017 until today). The first was on 18/7/2017, from the Region of Crete, worth €30,202. From then on, we have, by organisation, contract value, and date:
- Decentralised Administration of the Peloponnese on 4/4/2018, worth €228,000 (the largest)
- ESPA: €29,500 on 27/4/2018
- Ministry of Finance: €16,000 on 29/8/2018
- Region of Central Greece: €137,096 on 30/9/2018 and another €118,950 on 18/9/2018
- Ministry of Environment: €27,500 on 23/10/2018
- Ministry of Finance: €56,050 on 22/1/2019
- Hellenic Cadastre: €18,900 on 10/5/2019
- Region of Crete: €125,000 on 19/7/2019
Obviously, the work Mr Detsis does is unmatched, because, as can be seen, he has no competitor in the market — especially when it comes to public-sector assignments. In any case, yesterday the company, responding to the publication, presented the column with its own version regarding the contract it received from ERT and how it implemented it. (SEE HERE). Nevertheless, if there is anyone who believes that a channel which acquired and broadcast exclusively the biggest sporting event on the planet in 2026 — the World Cup, with ratings from 30% to 90% — needs additional special promotion from… influencers and actors Mr Lefteris Eleftheriou and Antonis Krompas, as well as posts costing €623,000, let them tell us too!
The successor to the Recovery Fund
As Pierros put it at yesterday’s event of the National Development Fund 2026-2030, this new scheme answers the question: “After the Recovery Fund, what?” The endowment of the new program is €23 billion, of which €17.1 billion are new investments and the remaining €5.8 billion concern the completion of projects from the previous programming period. The investments will be made in infrastructure, civil protection, green development, digital transformation, and business competitiveness, while the architect of the new fund is Nikos Papathanasis, who received congratulations from many ministers and regional officials who had gathered yesterday at the Athens Conservatoire. And, as K.M. put it, the bar is being set high in order to achieve, in substance, convergence with Europe.
Four-year program from the Thessaloniki International Fair
One remark by Mitsotakis that passed almost unnoticed from yesterday’s presentation of the National Development Program is that at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF), to a large extent, the ND’s program for the next elections will be presented, with a four-year horizon, for the Greece of 2030. The preparations in the Deputy Prime Minister’s office under Hatzidakis are regular; in the meetings held twice a week, several ministers, officials from the Prime Minister’s office, as well as technocrats from outside the government, participate. The aim is for Mitsotakis to be able to present certain central target figures for the next four years in Thessaloniki, which he will repeat as we move closer to the elections.
Summer dizziness over non-state universities
Where we least expected it, the new party of Tsipras brought it to us by deciding to present its proposals on education. Among these are the references to non-state universities by policy coordinator Ioanna Laliotou, which only she understood. I will summarise the coding of it: she said that ELA.S. will make major changes to the Pierrakakis law, but it cannot cancel the law that has been approved by the Council of State, within the framework of “legal certainty”; at the same time, however, it does not agree with the abolition of Article 16. That is, it accepts non-state universities as a reality, but disagrees with abolishing the constitutional restriction. As expected, both PASOK and SYRIZA grasped this complicated complication and began attacking Alexis’s party, which, truthfully, throws ideas into the public debate and sees what sticks…
The celebration in the rain
This reception by the President of the Republic for the 52nd anniversary of the restoration of democracy on Friday will be completely different anyway. Initially because of the number of guests (around 1,600 people have been invited), as Kostas Tasoulas decided to bring back invitations for politicians accompanied by their spouses. But, as it appears, it will also be different because of…the weather. Meteorologists are predicting a 50% chance of rain, so at the Presidency they are holding daily meetings to decide whether to set up the round tables as usual in the wonderful garden or whether they will be forced to hold the reception inside the Presidential Mansion. Final decisions are expected, always with the advice of meteorologists…at the last moment, perhaps on Thursday.
Why scalpels have started being sharpened at the Iatriko Kentro
Regular readers of Dark Room will remember that a few days ago we wrote that “the Piraeus Bank–IASO deal has been closed,” provoking a reaction from the bank with an announcement that was unusual in terms of its wording. It stated that “the Bank denies that it is a contracting party to, or an acquiring party in, the alleged ‘acquisition of IASO’ agreement.” The same announcement stated that “the creation of an extensive privately owned network of healthcare units by Piraeus Bank or Ethniki Insurance through acquisitions does not reflect the Bank’s intentions for the foreseeable future,” and concluded that “the Bank refrains from any further comment regarding reports concerning private transactions of third-party investors.” So, the explanation for the unusual content of the announcement is that the deal — not directly involving Piraeus Bank, but rather Strix Holdings (which belongs 25% to Piraeus Bank and, for the remaining 75%, to Blantyre) — has caused serious behind-the-scenes reactions, for the time being, both in the healthcare sector and among insurance companies. Competitors feel that the market is becoming significantly “narrower” and are feeling pressure. That is why they are seeking to “kill” Piraeus Bank’s plan at its inception. For example, it is being said in the market that Iatriko Kentro was not at all enthusiastic about what has been happening with IASO; they have taken out the scalpels and are sharpening them. At the same time, insurance companies have taken to the streets and are looking for partnerships that will secure a flow of insurance contracts for them. Meanwhile, discussions are taking place in law firms about the reactions, and various actions are being “weighed,” ranging from the Competition Commission to the SSM. Piraeus Bank, which certainly is not sleeping the sleep of the innocent, has realised that the market has been unsettled, and therefore states “that it refrains from any further comment regarding reports concerning private transactions of third-party investors.”
The axis that brings Greece closer together
On Friday, the final 46 kilometres of the E65 road, constructed by TERNA, a subsidiary of the GEK TERNA Group, will be opened to traffic. The road axis is being completed and delivered entirely into operation, drastically reducing travel times from Lamia to the Egnatia Motorway and bringing Athens to just 2 hours and 35 minutes away from Karditsa. The completion of the motorway creates a new development corridor that strengthens the connection of Western Thessaly with the south and northern Greece, facilitates freight transport, and improves access to tourist destinations. It is one of the most important road infrastructure projects of recent years, with a strong development footprint for the region.
Jumbo’s D-Day
Today’s session could be described as pivotal for Jumbo, as it will begin without the remaining regular dividend of 70 cents per share. If the stock “digests” part of the dividend, it will send a strong message of a change in its stock-market behaviour to the investment community. A first positive signal was nevertheless sent by the purchase of 35,577 shares carried out on 17 July by Sofia Vakaki, an executive member of the company’s Board of Directors.
What Latsco and EOS Capital saw in Nova ICT
Motor Oil, together with Latsco and EOS Capital, which entered the share capital by acquiring 30% of the company, seeks to create a broader investment structure around Nova ICT, leveraging the company’s momentum and creating the conditions for its next phase of growth. In recent years, Nova ICT has built a portfolio of projects in strategic sectors such as healthcare, civil protection, defence, infrastructure, utilities, and smart cities, while investing in artificial intelligence solutions, cybersecurity, and smart infrastructure. At the same time, it is expanding its participation in the private sector and in the implementation of projects financed by the EU. Among these, the most significant are the development of the National Crisis Management System and the National Database, a project included in the AEGIS programme with a total budget of €72.3 million; a €27 million project for the Publications Office of the European Union; the digitisation of files of third-country nationals for the Ministry of Migration; e-Schools and STEM laboratories for the Ministry of Education; the interconnection of public hospitals through GRNET, and others. Regarding the acquisition, the purchase of 50% of Nova ICT by Motor Oil through Ireon Technologies Limited, for €60.5 million, values the company at approximately €121 million — a level reflecting both its profitability and the prospects of the ICT market. In 2025, the company more than doubled its turnover to €123.65 million, while EBITDA increased by 134% to €15.2 million and net profits by 126% to €11.2 million. At the same time, the company maintains zero net debt, and based on these figures the transaction was completed at a multiple of approximately 8 times EBITDA and 11.8 times net profits — valuations considered attractive for a sector growing at double-digit rates and being fuelled by continued demand for digital transformation projects, cybersecurity, cloud services, IT systems, and more.
Morgan Stanley’s vote of confidence brought Eurobank and Piraeus Bank back onto the path of records
The banking sector emerged as the absolute protagonist of yesterday’s session, providing the necessary boost to the General Index so that it could once again approach the psychological threshold of 2,500 points. With a “jump” of 4.3%, the banking index climbed to 2,847 points, significantly narrowing the distance from the year’s high of 2,900 points. At the top of the performance rankings was Eurobank, staging a 6.2% rally to €4.4. The share matched its highs for the year, bringing the group’s total market capitalisation to €15.85 billion and approaching the €16 billion milestone. The next challenge for Eurobank is €5, a level the share has not seen since August 2015. Closer to its own yearly highs was Piraeus Bank, which recorded a strong rise of 5.6%, closing at €9.4, just below this year’s record of €9.47. For Piraeus, the next target is set at €10, a price not seen since mid-March 2021. The timing of this upward surge is not accidental. Eurobank and Piraeus Bank are Morgan Stanley’s top picks, as reflected in the report by the American investment house released yesterday. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight recommendation for both systemic banks, giving target prices of €4.9 for Eurobank and €11.3 for Piraeus Bank. According to the firm’s analysts, ahead of the announcements of second-quarter results, the Greek banking sector has strong catalysts for upgrading annual guidance on profitability and net interest income.
CrediaBank, the (unfounded) rumours, and the agreements
On the stock market board, CrediaBank’s share has recorded losses of approximately -22% in one month. This is the technical footprint of Thrivest’s €300 million placement, through which it reduced its stake to 24%, increasing free float and liquidity, with the unavoidable short-term cost of additional share supply. The transaction fuelled rumours and “information” in the market that the Greek state, which controls 29.4% through the Superfund, would be next. According to serious sources, no such intention existed. The facts, moreover, support this, as in the placement the Superfund did not sell even a single share and after the transaction emerged as the bank’s largest single shareholder. Obviously, at some point in the future it may wish to reduce its stake, but no specific plan exists at this juncture. The country’s fifth-largest banking force locked in two agreements within five days that change its status. First, the strategic partnership with BNP Paribas Asset Management. It is the first time a Greek bank has partnered with the French giant in Wealth Management. Gambit Financial Services, the group’s digital investment arm, also sat at the same table. The bet is not simply the distribution of products, but a digital advisory platform. Second, its inclusion in the EIB’s Security and Defence program. Credia is the second Greek bank and the first non-systemic bank in all of Europe to participate in the programme. A €100 million credit line, with the first €50 million tranche already signed. Through leverage, it mobilises up to €200 million for small and medium-sized enterprises and mid-caps in defence, security, and dual-use technologies, with an extension into equipment leasing.
The electricity system is at its limits today
Peak electricity demand is expected to reach 12,500 MW today. We are set to record an all-time record, with almost double the megawatts compared with April–May levels, which never exceeded 7,000 MW. The market has already priced in the surge in demand. For 10 consecutive days (with the sole exception of Sunday, 19 July), wholesale prices remained steadily above €100 per megawatt-hour, with spikes reaching €258/MWh. The average price in the Day-Ahead Market stood at €113.29/MWh during the first 20 days of July, up 22% compared with June, while yesterday it exceeded €142/MWh, with evening peaks at €223.64. So far, the energy mix has maintained the balance. Renewable energy sources covered 47.6% of production, with hydropower playing a key role during peak hours; natural gas ranged between 30% and 39%, while, after a long period, imports also appeared, at 6%–7%. The problem is that natural gas costs money. TTF is trading above €48/MWh, an increase of more than 50% from pre-war levels, with the renewed flare-up in the Middle East fuelling the rally. The critical front is the retail market. In previous months, while the heatwave in Europe was “burning” wholesale prices, Greek providers absorbed the cost and kept tariffs stable. With August — the heaviest month of the tourist peak season — approaching, these margins are being exhausted. At the Ministry of Environment and Energy (YPEN), daily meetings are assessing the need for new subsidies.
A new chapter for the Koutsianas family
The developments surrounding the business venture of the Koutsianas family, the company “Symbeeosis Ef Zin,” founded by Nikos and Niki Koutsianas after the sale of Apivita, mark a new chapter. This is because, according to information available to the column, a few days ago its merger with Nacaro Foods S.A. was set in motion, with Nacaro Foods as the absorbing company and Symbeeosis as the absorbed company. Nacaro Foods is a Greek premium food company, with chef Evangelos Liakos as its central figure and head (Chairman and CEO), architect Kostas Poulopoulos as Vice Chairman of the Board, and members Alexandros Nikou, Giannis Charalambopoulos, Ilias Pantikakis, and Christos Plaitis, founder of Sugarbeet. It is described as a multidimensional gastronomic venture that offers the market food products and olive oil traditionally produced by small producers in Crete and the Peloponnese. Its main asset is the brand “Yiayia and Friends” (meaning “Grandmother and her friends”), which draws inspiration from the tradition and authenticity of the Greek countryside. Nacaro Foods was founded in 2017 and became a société anonyme last May, while it is also expanding into the wholesale trade of dairy products, eggs, and other goods. The company is headquartered in Hersonissos, Heraklion, Crete. The relevant decisions were taken by the boards of directors of the two companies on 10 July, while valuation reports and the merger agreement draft were also prepared. The agreement provides for the consolidation of the assets and liabilities of the two companies and the transfer of the assets of the absorbed Symbeeosis to Nacaro Foods. All of this is based on the transformation balance sheet dated 11 May 2026. It should be noted that Nacaro has share capital of €55,555, while Symbeeosis has €5,368,300; however, the latter also shows “retained earnings” losses amounting to €8.48 million. As stated in the draft merger agreement: “Upon completion of the merger, the absorbed company (Symbeeosis) shall be deemed automatically dissolved, its legal personality disappearing, without liquidation being required.” Therefore, we are talking about a real “change of page,” at least for the Koutsianas family…
India took off; AEGEAN’s share has not yet followed
Forty thousand passengers in six months. That is the tally of IndiGo since the first direct air bridge between Greece and India opened in the last ten days of January, with the new A321XLR aircraft from Delhi and Mumbai. “Eleftherios Venizelos” Airport is already functioning as a hub for routing Indian travellers to other European capitals. The real story behind this agreement is the room for growth. In 2025, approximately 81% of traffic between the two countries passed through Gulf hubs. Even after IndiGo’s entry, connecting flights retain a high share. This is the slice of the pie that AEGEAN is seeking. The realistic timeline for flights to Delhi and Mumbai is now shifting to 2027, at a time when Airbus delivery delays (the four A321neo LR aircraft are expected in the second quarter of 2027) and disruptions in Middle Eastern air corridors have overturned all planning. On Euronext Athens, AEGEAN’s share is valued at €1.078 billion, down 13% compared with six months ago. The bilateral agreement for the controlled arrival of Indian workers has significant geopolitical dimensions. The 200,000 figure being mentioned does not represent approved worker arrivals; it reflects the economy’s total labour shortage, estimated at 200,000–300,000 positions. On the horizon, in 2027, the first test flights from Kasteli appear, with full commercial operation in November 2028. The Athens–India air corridors have already filled up before the stock market board has had time to evaluate them.
Prediction markets are changing the online betting industry
The 2026 World Cup highlighted a new competitor for the online betting industry: prediction markets. Kalshi, the largest player in the sector in the United States, successively broke its transaction records during the tournament, with activity almost ten times higher than at the beginning of the year. According to H2 Gambling Capital, prediction markets now accounted for approximately 27% of the legal sports betting volume in the US, compared with only 9% at the beginning of 2026. During the tournament, Kalshi’s app recorded more daily users than the country’s two largest online betting platforms, DraftKings and FanDuel. The rapid growth of prediction markets — which allow trading on the outcome of sporting events as well as events such as elections or weather conditions — has forced traditional betting companies to develop similar products. Although analysts estimate that these platforms appeal to a different and potentially less profitable audience, they consider them to now be a permanent competitive factor, gradually taking market share from traditional sportsbooks and changing the industry’s balance.
The Chinese pin that could burst the bubble
China’s banking system is the largest in the world, with assets of $70.2 trillion, larger than those of the US and EU combined. Chinese banks state that “non-performing loans” on their balance sheets do not exceed 1.52%. All this is happening at a time when real housing prices in China have fallen 23% since 2021, new home prices have been declining for 35 consecutive months, and 65–80 million homes remain unsold. Michalis Nikoletos (DeFi Advisors, July 2026) compares the figures with corresponding housing crises in major economies. In the US in 2008, NPLs peaked at 5.6%; in Spain, at 13.6%; in Ireland, above 25%. No property crisis has ever produced “bad loans” of only 1.52%. Applying historical ratios, the hidden losses of Chinese banks are estimated at $2.5–$7.7 trillion, and the total loss of the financial system (including trusts, insurers, Belt and Road projects, and fiscal costs) at $7.7 trillion under the basic scenario — meaning 15 times official bad loans and 37% of GDP. Against this, provisions and annual profits cover only $1.28 trillion, while state recapitalisation to date ($74 billion) is a drop in the ocean. The “Chinese trick” that hides losses simultaneously inflates GDP. With investment accounting for 40% of the economy shrinking and the country in deflation, the “+5%” growth figure raises serious mathematical doubts. More reassuring is the report author’s assessment that a “Lehman moment” is not a likely scenario for China today. What will most likely happen is a “Japanese-style slow deflation,” with a lost decade, erosion of the yuan in real terms, and structural pressure on commodities and global demand. All of this is estimation. The fact is that there is a large pin already touching the huge bubble. It is just that in China, even bursts usually happen with state planning: slowly, quietly, and with the bill ultimately paid by depositors.
The “Tsar” of the British economy and the stock and bond markets
John Healey, 66, former Defence Secretary, was appointed Finance Minister in Britain, against market expectations that had favoured Shabana Mahmood or Ed Miliband. John Healey’s arrival at the British Treasury received a two-speed reception. On Monday, new Prime Minister Burnham’s statement about “full flexibility” in fiscal rules sent the 10-year British government bond (gilt) yield 8 basis points higher to 5.049%, and the 30-year yield to 5.75%, a two-month high. The pound sterling fell to 1.341 (-0.29%) against the dollar, and the FTSE 100 stock index fell 0.71% to 10,524.76 points. On Tuesday, the verdict changed direction, cautiously and selectively. Bond yields fell across the curve, with the 10-year at 5.025%, and sterling recovered to 1.3450 against the dollar. Against the euro, the exchange rate moved on Tuesday to 1.1772 (from Monday’s low of 1.1759). The real party, however, took place on defence stocks. Babcock surged as much as +6.8%, BAE Systems rose +3.4% to 1,939 pence, QinetiQ gained +4.5%, while the European aerospace and defence index rose 1%. The market is pricing in what Healey himself defended when he submitted his resignation in June. He argued that defence spending should rise to 3% of GDP instead of the 2.7% in the current plan, with a path towards 3.5% by 2035. At the same time, he promised priority for British companies in procurement. Suddenly, discussion of “defence bonds” is returning in London, while reports indicate that the new minister is considering cooperation with DSRB, the Defence Strategic Review Board, a defence development bank rejected by Starmer and in which Greece has participated from the beginning. In this setting, there is an obvious contradiction. Stocks celebrate the spending; bonds will have to finance it, with the 10-year yield above 5% while fiscal room is extremely limited. In London in 2026, everyone is trying to find out who will pay the bill for Healey’s love affair with defence spending.
Football stadiums on top of skyscrapers
Regardless of the many inconsistencies and technical difficulties that we all observed at this year’s World Cup, it is an undeniable fact that the stadiums on American soil had technical excellence and highly advanced technology that impressed. Saudi Arabia has decided to take the matter one step further — or, if you prefer, one step higher. It promises that at the 2034 World Cup we will see the world’s first “aerial” stadium. A 46,000-seat stadium, 350 meters above ground level, literally on top of a skyscraper, integrated into the roof of the linear megacity “The Line” in NEOM, with a budget of $1 billion and a construction timetable of 2027–2032. Of course, there are many difficulties in implementing this ambitious plan. Construction of “The Line” suddenly stopped in September 2025, with only 2.4 kilometers of foundations completed and no above-ground construction. The PIF recorded an $8 billion impairment on giga-projects, while an internal audit leaked to the Wall Street Journal raised the projected total cost to $8.8 trillion, with a completion horizon of…2080. The population target of the new under-construction megacity shrank from 1.5 million to fewer than 300,000 residents. In March, a $1 billion tunnel contract with Hyundai was canceled; in May, Webuild announced the termination of a contract for the high-speed Connector line, with €1 billion of unfinished work. NEOM’s 2026–2030 budget provides for 60 billion riyals ($16 billion) in contractor compensation for contract cancellations, an amount equal to 30% of the projected 2026 fiscal deficit. Of course, FIFA and the organisers have already prepared a contingency plan. If NEOM is not ready in time, matches will be moved to Riyadh and Jeddah. Ultimately, in football, as in mega-projects, the ball always obeys one law: gravity.
President Trump is looking for new tariffs
The coming Friday, 24 July, is a critical date for Trump’s tariff schedule. The temporary 10% across-the-board tariff imposed by the PotUS on 20 February expires, on the same day that the Supreme Court, by a 6–3 vote, cancelled the IEEPA tariffs of the 2025 period, opening a $166 billion refund account for importers. The President “patched” the situation by using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows additional charges of up to 15%, but only for 150 days. The 150 days end this week, while this tariff too has already been ruled illegal at first instance by the Court of International Trade, with the appeal ongoing. According to the Financial Times, Trump is preparing to announce new 10% tariffs on dozens of countries during the week, so that not even a single day is left without coverage. The new legal vehicle is Section 301. The forced-labour investigations announced in June covering 60 trading partners provide for 10% tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, and Britain, and 12.5% on China, Japan, India, South Korea, Brazil, and Switzerland. These are tariffs without an expiry date, unlike Section 122. At the same time, other investigations are underway that will legitimise higher rates. The President’s advisers warn that the economic shocks of the initial trade war will be repeated, just months before the November midterm elections. For now, Trump appears to prefer tariffs over opinion polls.
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