Ollie Whitmore, Chief football news reporter

FIFA made a very significant change to how the order of groups at the 2026 World Cup would be determined, and no matter how controversial it will start to take effect on Wednesday evening.

Football’s governing body decided that teams’ head-to-head record would be the first port of call should they finish level on points in order to decide which takes the higher position.

It is a departure from using goal difference – an almost universal metric used to help rank teams around the world – as the primary method, which will now be looked at to sort the eight best-performing teams that finish third into the round of 32.

The primary argument for using head-to-head records is that it makes freak results, such as Germany’s 7-1 dismantling of debutants Curacao, less likely to determine who goes through.

On the other hand, journalist Miguel Delaney argued that the “baffling decision” to turn away from goal difference, which famously saw Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero snatch the title away from Manchester United in 2011/12, will snuff out much of the usual drama that final group games at the World Cup are renowned for.

FromTheSpot takes a look at its impact in terms of which teams that currently sit third in their group are most likely to progress into the knockouts ahead of the final round getting underway at 20:00 (BST).

Though Miguel is right to point out the shame of there being less in-group twists and turns during the final round of fixtures, there remains plenty of intrigue between groups. No third-place teams have won more than three points, and five of them – Scotland, Paraguay, Sweden, Algeria, and Croatia – are tied on that total with two matches gone.

Sweden

Sweden made a highly impressive start to the World Cup, yet would only have profited from their 5-1 dismantling of Tunisia, resulting in Sabri Lamouchi becoming just the fifth manager to be sacked mid-tournament, had the Netherlands not then beaten them by the exact same margin the following week.

That being said, Anthony Elanga still managed to score a goal of real quality on the counter-attack and strike partners Viktor Gyokores and Alexander Isak can be expected to find the net again with the form they found against the African side.

They play dark horses Japan at midnight (BST) on Friday, and with Tunisia already out are one team that look fairly nailed on to reach the round of 32 if the Blue Warriors prove too big of a task while in such impressive form. However, due to the new head-to-head rule they would not then overtake the Dutch even if they fail to beat Tunisia.

Scotland

The Tartan Army saw Scotland fall not far short of getting a point out of Morocco in their second match, after PSV forward Ismael Saibari scored inside just 70 seconds of the first whistle, but have the intimidating task of facing Brazil at 23:00 (BST).

What makes their situation look slightly better right now is that they have the joint-best goal difference of all third-place teams, alongside Sweden in Group F, but this means that to keep their advantage – assuming that the other teams fail to pick up a positive result – they will want a draw against the six-time winners.

Brazil put 3-0 past Haiti in a return to form under Carlo Ancelotti following a subpar performance against the African Cup of Nations semi-finalists, and if they can restrict Scotland to the six shots they managed – allowing none on target – then it might prove to be an upsetting night for Scotland.

Manager Steve Clark opted for a defensive approach against Morocco, opting to put recognised defender Kieran Tierney at left midfield and have Che Adams operate as a lone striker, who wound up being quite isolated while the Celtic full-back was taken off injured early in the second 45 minutes.

Make no mistake, Brazil are clear favourites to win. But they can’t do much about Scotland’s unwavering motivation to qualify for the knockout stages for the first time at a World Cup tournament and need to work hard to find an answer to it.

But Scotland’s fate, of course, also depends on results elsewhere.

Paraguay

It was a pretty toothless display for Paraguay on their return to the World Cup after a 16 year absence. They were of minimal concern for an impressive United States, who it was apparent are now a side transformed under Mauricio Pochettino.

Their meeting with Australia is a really enticing one, being a straight shootout for who guarantees themselves a round of 32 spot by finishing one place behind USMNT in second.

To their advantage, Paraguay only improved in between their opening round loss and the narrow 1-0 victory against Turkiye and Australia got much worse – finding Pochettino’s side just as impenetrable as the former did.

The national team’s star boy Julio Enciso has kept himself fit after a scare in the 4-0 warm-up victory against El Salvador that he left prematurely on a stretcher, in tears. He was the one to set up Matías Galaza’s accurate strike, and will be a key player to Paraguay’s ambition to defeat the Socceroos.

But to his credit, Australia’s youngest ever World Cup goalscorer Nestroy Irankunda holds that very status as well. He came on at half time in their game against the US to replace Mo Touré, and with is goal against Turkey likely won the faith of manager Tony Popovic to score again in their final game in Group D.

Croatia

If you had to ask me, the side that sits on three points but looks short on confidence that they will make it are Croatia. Their 40-year-old captain and iconic midfielder Luka Modric was a shining light on an otherwise poor first half against Panama, despite eventually celebrating his 200th cap with a win thanks to substitute Ante Budemir.

Los Canaleros, like every other side at this year’s World Cup, are less experienced in terms of total caps but played with a higher, more youthful tempo that you’d expect them to when playing against one of the oldest sides at the tournament.

Much like Scotland, they have a difficult task to seal progression through. Ghana were very impressive in their resistant defending to hold favourites England to a frustrating goalless draw on Tuesday evening.

Against a side that doesn’t progress quite as much quality going forward than they did reaching the semi-finals eight years ago in Russia, the Black Stars may well be tipped to get their second win of the group stage.

Croatia will likely progress with a draw, four points being the benchmark that teams in third place or below are currently aiming for. But anything worse and things might not look as pretty, with several teams on less points capable of qualifying.

Who else could make it?

Algeria are the final team to be on three points and in third, and also have a shootout for second place when they take on Austria, having lost to Argentina but earned a first win at the World Cup since 1990 by defeating Jordan, who are out.

DR Congo could make history and reach the knockout stages of a World Cup on only their second attempt since 1974, when they first appeared on the world stage known as the country of Zaire. They too were impressed against a heavyweight, drawing 1-1 with Portugal in round two and now face Uzbekistan, who sit bottom of Group K.

Like Scotland, they have the chance to immortalise themselves in the history of the nation and will be considered as more than capable of besting the World Cup debutants to reach that golden number of four points.

Cape Verde have been arguably the story of the tournament so far, and face Saudi Arabia in an incredibly exciting final round showdown in the early hours of Saturday morning eyeing up second place should Spain beat Uruguay.

Belgium are staring at the possibility of a second group stage exit in as many tournaments, sitting third in Group G after frustrating draws against Egypt and Iran, yet could still rise up the table by beating New Zealand – the lowest-ranked World Cup team.

Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czechia, South Africa, Qatar, Ecuador, Curaçao, New Zealand, and Saudi Arabia are all on one point and are still mathematically in the tournament.

Senegal face Iraq, with both teams on zero points and the winner giving themselves the best shot at making it out of a very intriguing Group I.

Uzbekistan, as mentioned, face DR Congo and would go third on three points with a victory against the African side, but with a goal difference of -7 following a 5-0 thrashing from Portugal are in a very weak spot to make it out the group.

For more detailed reports, reaction, and analysis of the World Cup as it happens, head to our website and favourite our page on OneFootball.

Source: Fromthespot.co.uk