The race to win the 2026 FIFA men's World Cup took another dramatic turn Wednesday, with England surviving a scare, Belgium pulling off one of the wildest comebacks in tournament history against Senegal, and Team USA advancing while suffering a potentially costly blow.
As knockout-round chaos continues to reshape the bracket, fans are increasingly searching for one question above all others: Who will win the World Cup 2026?
France remains the betting favorite after its dominant win over Sweden, but recent upsets, stunning comebacks and the Americans' growing momentum have made the title race far less predictable.
Belgium delivered one of the tournament's most remarkable results, rallying from a 2-0 deficit after the 85th minute against Senegal before the comeback win in extra time. The result instantly became one of the defining moments of the knockout stage and sent Belgium soaring up the latest odds boards.
Team USA is riding the wave with another win — becoming the first U.S. men's team to win three matches at a single World Cup. However, the victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina came at a high cost, after star striker Folarin Balogun received a red card, leaving the Americans without one of their top attacking threats heading into a Round of 16 showdown against Belgium on Monday.
England also survived in the last few minutes of the game and advanced, keeping one of the tournament favorites alive and maintaining its place among the leading contenders alongside France, Argentina, Spain, Brazil and Portugal, some of which play today:
- Spain vs. Austria: 3 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
- Portugal vs. Croatia: 7 p.m. ET at BMO Field, TorontoLive stream: Fubo (free trial) | Peacock (Spanish)
- Live stream: Fubo (free trial) | Peacock (Spanish)
Who is favored to win World Cup 2026?
Top contenders (updated outlook)
However, public sentiment in the betting odds shows a slightly different scenario of possible winners.
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Latest odds, predictions
Across sportsbooks and predictive models, France has pulled away with the most significant lead, followed by Argentina, Spain, England, Brazil and Portugal to round out the top tier. And a second tier of uncertainty follows with USA, Colombia, Mexico, Morocco and Norway.
The Polymarket betting odds for the 2026 World Cup winner is favoring France by the biggest percentage to win with Argentina now also significantly favored over Spain:
- France - 35%
- Argentina - 18%
- Spain - 10%
- England - 8%
- Brazil - 6%
- Portugal - 6%
- Mexico - 4%
- USA - 3%
- Morocco - 3%
- Colombia - 2%
The Kalshi markets' betting odds for the 2026 World Cup winner are very similar, with France and Argentina gaining the biggest lead and separation at the top tier.
- France - 35.3%
- Argentina - 19%
- Spain - 10.1%
- England - 7.5%
- Brazil - 6.6%
- Portugal - 6.5%
- Mexico - 5.3%
- USA - 4.3%
- Colombia - 2.7%
- Morocco - 2.6%
Across prediction models and sportsbooks, France now holds the highest probability to win, with Argentina, Spain and England now trailing while Portugal and Brazil still hold on in the top tier of contenders.
The key takeaway: France is the heavy favorite, while margins between other top contenders remain narrow — making this still one of the most open World Cups in years. The expanded 48-team format is also playing a role, allowing more teams to advance and increasing the chances of upsets once the knockout rounds begin.
Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of 12:45 p.m. Thursday, July 2, 2026.
World Cup 2026 dark horses - teams to watch now
- USA — USA is arguably the biggest dark horse remaining, with home crowd advantage, favorable bracket with young attacking core
- Belgium — After a stunning comeback win against Senegal, their veteran core suddenly has renewed life and confidence
- Mexico — Continues to benefit from home-continent support and favorable matchups with a manageable path
- Morocco — After eliminating the Netherlands, they remain one of the biggest shocks of the knockout rounds and proven they can beat elite opponents
- Colombia — Haven't attracted the same attention as France, Spain or Argentina, but continues showing up in all the top contender discussions and odds boards
- Norway — Rides Erling Haaland and dominates scoring charts, wins shootouts and tight matches
FIFA's 2026 World Cup power rankings: All 22 teams left - updated
According to the latest FIFA Men's World Ranking, these are the favorites to win the FIFA men's 2026 World Cup:
- France
- Argentina
- Spain
- England
- Brazil
- Morocco
- Portugal
- Belgium
- Mexico
- Colombia
- Croatia
- United States
- Switzerland
- Norway
- Austria
- Egypt
- Australia
- Algeria
- Canada
- Paraguay
- Cape Verde
- Ghana
World Cup 2026 Schedule: When is the FIFA men's World Cup final
The 2026 FIFA World Cup began with the group stage on June 11 and runs through the final championship game on July 19, featuring 48 teams and the new expanded format:
- Group stage: June 11–27
- Round of 32: June 28–July 3
- Round of 16: July 4–7
- Quarterfinals: July 9–11
- Semifinals: July 14–15
- Final: July 19
It will be the largest World Cup in history, with matches played across North America.
Who has won the most World Cups? All-time winnerst list
Brazil remains the most successful nation in World Cup history, with five titles. Germany and Italy are tied for second with four wins each and defending champion Argentina holds three. The record for most appearances in a World Cup final goes to Germany, making eight final matches. Here's a list of all-time winners:
- 2022: Argentina
- 2018: France
- 2014: Germany
- 2010: Spain
- 2006: Italy
- 2002: Brazil
- 1998: France
- 1994: Brazil
- 1990: West Germany
- 1986: Argentina
- 1982: Italy
- 1978: Argentina
- 1974: West Germany
- 1970: Brazil
- 1966: England
- 1962: Brazil
- 1958: Brazil
- 1954: West Germany
- 1950: Uruguay
- 1946: No tournament due to World War II
- 1942: No tournament due to World War II
- 1938: Italy
- 1934: Italy
- 1930: Uruguay
Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at mfrancis@usatodayco.com.
Source: NorthJersey.com
